Wednesday, May 26, 2004

Strategic Forecasting, Inc. Improvements in Western Intelligence :

"Taken together, the recent incidents indicate the United States and its allies are armed with increasingly actionable intelligence from their sources in the Middle East, Pakistan and elsewhere. Although al Qaeda might remain, in the intelligence community's words, a 'ghost' or an elusive hydra, the community's failures prior to the Sept. 11 attacks no longer can justify ongoing complacency toward its warnings about the risks of attacks. The government alerts also cannot be dismissed merely as attempts to elicit 'chatter' or otherwise improve officials' view into the threat from radical Islam.

These events indicate that at least some parts of the U.S. counterterrorism community have reached a crucial milestone in their operational and analytical capabilities -- which aids their ability to predict al Qaeda's next moves and other emerging threats. It is in light of this assessment that threats issued specifically against the domestic United States, in addition to Western assets overseas, could be viewed as credible. "

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