really good article about Iranian politics. Amir Taheri on Iran on National Review Online Iran's decision-making elite, consisting of some 100 mullahs and their non-clerical prot�g�s, is divided into two camps with regard to Iraq.
One camp, led by former prime minister Mir-Hussein Mussavi, with Khatami as figurehead, could be labeled "accommodationist." Its main argument is that Iran's best interest lies in a partnership with the United States in toppling the Iraqi regime.
Saeed Hajjarian, Khatami's chief strategist, recently explained the accommodationist position in a long article.
"Change in Iraq has become inevitable," he wrote. "And it is clear that we can neither stop nor go against it. We must thus go along with it and seek two things: a guarantee that the next regime in Baghdad will not be hostile to Iran, and a guarantee that we are not [Washington's] next target."
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Facing the accommodationists is the faction one could call "the confrontationists," led by Rafsanjani. The "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei, who lashed out against the U.S. in an address to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards on March 11, represents the public face of the faction.
Khamenei's chief foreign-policy adviser, former foreign minister Ali-Akbar Velayati, recently spelled out the confrontationist position in a series of speeches, interviews, and articles in Iran.
"The American Great Satan will never accept an Islamic system. It is coming to Iraq to complete its encirclement of our Islamic Republic before it moves against us. To help the Americans conquer Iraq easily would be suicidal for our revolution."
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Another front, according to Velayati, will be Afghanistan, where Iran has forged close ties with Ismail Khan, the "emir" of Herat, and is arming the Hazara Shiites in Bamiyan and Maydan-Shahr. Still another front could be Azerbaijan, where Iran has won influence in the Talesh region on the Caspian Sea.
Ironically, Iran's allies in Azerbaijan are Sunni Muslims opposed to the Shiite majority whose leaders have opted for a pro-American foreign policy complimented by close ties with Turkey. Iran also has considerable influence in Armenia, where, in tandem with Russia, it helped Armenian forces capture the Azerbaijani enclave of High Karabagh a decade ago.
Velayati insists that Iran should avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. He recommends "the lighting of countless small fires here and there" designed to stretch U.S. forces and, in time, persuade American public opinion that Pax Americana in the Middle East is not worth the price.
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The accommodationists reject such strategies as dangerous. "The overthrow of Saddam Hussein would be good news for everyone, the Iraqis, the Iranians and the entire Muslim world," says Ali-Muhammad Abtahi, an assistant to Khatami for parliamentary affairs.
"The end of Saddam must be the start of a period of peace and understanding in the region, not of new adventures."
The fight between the accommodationists and the confrontationists has split Shiite religious opinion with regard to Iraq.
One camp, led by former prime minister Mir-Hussein Mussavi, with Khatami as figurehead, could be labeled "accommodationist." Its main argument is that Iran's best interest lies in a partnership with the United States in toppling the Iraqi regime.
Saeed Hajjarian, Khatami's chief strategist, recently explained the accommodationist position in a long article.
"Change in Iraq has become inevitable," he wrote. "And it is clear that we can neither stop nor go against it. We must thus go along with it and seek two things: a guarantee that the next regime in Baghdad will not be hostile to Iran, and a guarantee that we are not [Washington's] next target."
>>
Facing the accommodationists is the faction one could call "the confrontationists," led by Rafsanjani. The "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei, who lashed out against the U.S. in an address to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards on March 11, represents the public face of the faction.
Khamenei's chief foreign-policy adviser, former foreign minister Ali-Akbar Velayati, recently spelled out the confrontationist position in a series of speeches, interviews, and articles in Iran.
"The American Great Satan will never accept an Islamic system. It is coming to Iraq to complete its encirclement of our Islamic Republic before it moves against us. To help the Americans conquer Iraq easily would be suicidal for our revolution."
>>
Another front, according to Velayati, will be Afghanistan, where Iran has forged close ties with Ismail Khan, the "emir" of Herat, and is arming the Hazara Shiites in Bamiyan and Maydan-Shahr. Still another front could be Azerbaijan, where Iran has won influence in the Talesh region on the Caspian Sea.
Ironically, Iran's allies in Azerbaijan are Sunni Muslims opposed to the Shiite majority whose leaders have opted for a pro-American foreign policy complimented by close ties with Turkey. Iran also has considerable influence in Armenia, where, in tandem with Russia, it helped Armenian forces capture the Azerbaijani enclave of High Karabagh a decade ago.
Velayati insists that Iran should avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. He recommends "the lighting of countless small fires here and there" designed to stretch U.S. forces and, in time, persuade American public opinion that Pax Americana in the Middle East is not worth the price.
>>
The accommodationists reject such strategies as dangerous. "The overthrow of Saddam Hussein would be good news for everyone, the Iraqis, the Iranians and the entire Muslim world," says Ali-Muhammad Abtahi, an assistant to Khatami for parliamentary affairs.
"The end of Saddam must be the start of a period of peace and understanding in the region, not of new adventures."
The fight between the accommodationists and the confrontationists has split Shiite religious opinion with regard to Iraq.
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